Transgender prisoners in AZ consider Harris a better choice, but many won’t (or can't) cast a vote.

Recent survey data conducted on trans and nonbinary prisoners in Arizona show stronger support for Vice President Kamala Harris in tomorrow’s election, but barriers to ballots and a lackadaisical approach to politics may mean their votes aren’t cast. 

The Marshall Project, a non-profit news outlet covering the criminal justice system, sent out tens of thousands of surveys to incarcerated people in an attempt to learn how prisoners felt about the election cycle. 

Almost 54,000 people responded to the surveys. Among them were more than 6,900 prisoners across Arizona's detention centers, with 145 of those people identifying as transgender, nonbinary, or two-spirited. 

The data from the survey’s queer respondents reflect similar trends to Arizona’s voting block, generally, with a higher percentage of people aligning themselves as Independents rather than Republican or Democrat. And just as in national surveys, they are more likely to cast a vote for Harris. 

“She gave much of her support to give back to the community," said one queer prisoner in Arizona who responded they would vote for Harris. "I like her beliefs and think that she would lead the country forward.” 

While some said they would prefer someone different, only one non-cisgendered respondent said they would vote for Donald Trump. 

“As she has been Vice President, it is difficult to really understand her political stance," said one transgender prisoner who would vote for a third-party candidate. "Is she a polarized Democrat, or a politician who will rally the nation to give up this divisive radicalist political polarization? A nation united shall forever stand tall, but a nation divided (as we are currently) shall surely fall.” 

The struggle of Democrats to get those last few queer votes over to Harris is a national trend as there continues to be some support for Republicans among the community, and not enough pushback or education from Democrats, said Tiera Rainey, executive director of the Tucson Bail Fund. 

“The Republican Party has been very clear with its virulent anti-trans position,” Rainey said. “But I think for the Democratic Party, I don't think they've been strong enough on condemning the anti-trans… negative talking points. And I don't think people feel represented by the system.”

Rainey said for that reason, it’s more likely that someone who is transgender doesn’t vote at all in the presidential election.

“I know plenty of trans folks, just in the community, who are very apathetic to the political process because they feel like it doesn't represent them,” she said. “The data seems to reflect that.”

She described the current election cycle as a “very dark political time,” which deters many people who are transgender—especially incarcerated individuals—from choosing a side.

But Rainey said one of the largest challenges for incarcerated individuals is the barrier to entry to vote.

Incarcerated Arizonans are able to vote, but with some caveats: 

People convicted of misdemeanors and living in jails are allowed to vote. For those who have been convicted of a single felony their voting rights are restored after release, while those who have multiple felonies must wait two years after release and apply to get their rights restored by a judge from the court where they were sentenced. 

It’s unclear how many jailed people in Arizona have been able to get a mail-in ballot since Sec. of State Adrian Fontes sent a memo to detention centers clarifying a prisoner’s right to vote this election. 

Even still, the survey data illustrates that if mail-in-ballots were sent in to eligible queer voters, many would appear to not want to cast their vote. 

In The Marshall Project’s survey, 41% of Arizona’s respondents said they were not likely to vote in the November election. Only a quarter of respondents said they were probably going to vote. It’s unclear if that divide is due to voting eligibility reasons or low interest.

Civic engagement among incarcerated individuals lags behind other parts of the state, Rainey said, specifically among incarcerated individuals who consider themselves part of the LGBTQ+ community. 

“Half of Americans don't participate in the presidential election, right? So I think we also have to understand that that still exists within the LGBTQ+ community," she said. "Even if they're incarcerated, those dynamics still exist where people are not politically engaged."

She also doubts the state’s detention facilities have done much political education work. 

Since Harris entered the race, 38% of the 2,679 prisoners in Arizona who responded to a survey question on presidential preference said they preferred Trump, while 40% said they preferred Harris. That bucks the national trend, where incarcerated individuals support Trump’s presidency at 46% and 33%, respectively, according to the survey.  

Trump’s support among those incarcerated has remained steadfast among white males, with Harris receiving support primarily from prisoners of color and women. In 2020, The Marshall Project conducted a similar survey and found that Trump, generally, had more support than then-Presidential nominee Joe Biden. 

You can view the survey results here.